Bull Market vs Bear Market: Definitions and Bitcoin in 2026
Last Updated: September 15, 2026
Bull market vs bear market is the difference between a sustained rise and a sustained fall of about 20% or more. Bitcoin showed both within a year: it fell 53% from $124,740 on October 7, 2025, to $58,566 on July 1, 2026, then rose 31% to $76,900 by September 15, 2026, according to CoinGecko daily prices.
The terms come from stock markets. The SEC's investor education site, Investor.gov, defines a bull market as a rise of 20% or more in a broad market index over at least two months, with optimistic sentiment, and a bear market as a fall of the same size and duration, with pessimistic sentiment. Crypto traders borrow the rule, usually applying it to bitcoin, which is far more volatile than a stock index and can cross the 20% line in weeks. That is why labels in crypto change quickly and depend on where you start measuring. Our guide to the crypto market cycle shows the usual order of these phases, and the bitcoin halving guide explains how scheduled supply cuts work. This guide compares the two phases on eight criteria, checks where bitcoin stood in September 2026, and runs a buying example through the full cycle. Discipline matters in both phases, which is the focus of our crypto trading psychology guide, and anyone who plans to go long or short with borrowed exposure should first learn how leverage trading works.
Bull Market vs Bear Market: Key Differences
| Criterion | Bull market | Bear market |
|---|---|---|
| Definition used by Investor.gov | A rise of 20% or more in a broad market index over at least two months, with optimistic sentiment | A fall of 20% or more in a broad market index over at least two months, with pessimistic sentiment |
| Bitcoin example | July 1 to September 15, 2026: from $58,566 to $76,900, up 31.3% in 76 days | October 7, 2025 to July 1, 2026: from $124,740 to $58,566, down 53.0% in 267 days |
| Price against the 200-day average | Usually above it; bitcoin traded at $76,900 against about $70,200 on September 15, 2026 | Usually below it, and the average itself turns lower as the decline continues |
| Effect on bitcoin miners | Higher coin prices raise both mining revenue and the value of coins held | Riot's value per mined bitcoin fell to $71,667 in Q2 2026 from $98,800 a year earlier |
| Perpetual futures funding | Crowded long positioning pushes funding positive, so longs pay shorts | Funding falls and can turn negative when short positioning dominates |
| Common approaches | Holding, adding on pullbacks, and leveraged longs with strict stop-losses | Holding cash or stablecoins, hedging holdings, and short positions with defined risk |
| Main mistake to avoid | Buying late with high leverage and being liquidated in a sharp pullback | Selling near the low, or shorting into a relief rally and getting squeezed |
| Worked example: $10,000 of BTC | Bought on July 1, 2026, at $58,566: worth about $13,130 on September 15, 2026 | Bought on October 7, 2025, at $124,740: worth about $6,165 on September 15, 2026 |
Data as of September 15, 2026. Definitions: Investor.gov glossary entries for bull market and bear market. Bitcoin prices, all-time high and 200-day average (calculated from daily prices): CoinGecko. Miner data: Riot Platforms Q2 2026 results. Daily prices are CoinGecko's 00:00 UTC data points, so intraday highs and lows differ slightly.
Are We in a Bull or Bear Market? Bitcoin in September 2026
Bitcoin's own numbers on September 15, 2026, support both labels, which is common at turning points.
- The bearish reading. At $76,900, bitcoin was 39.0% below its all-time high of $126,080, set on October 6, 2025, and 33.1% lower than a year earlier, according to CoinGecko.
- The bullish reading. It was 31.3% above its July 1, 2026 daily low of $58,566, up 21.6% over 60 days and 22.1% over 30 days, and it traded above its 200-day average of about $70,200.
- What the rule says. Applied strictly, a 20% rise over at least two months from a low marks a bull market, so bitcoin met the test in September 2026. Measured from the peak, it was still deep in a drawdown.
The fall itself was steep and slow. From the October 2025 high to the July 2026 low took 267 days of daily data, and the decline showed up across the industry: Riot Platforms reported that its bitcoin mining revenue fell to $113.7 million in the second quarter of 2026 from $140.9 million a year earlier, citing lower average bitcoin prices. The explainer on the crypto market cycle covers how these phases usually follow one another.
What Drives Each Phase
Bull markets usually build on rising demand that outpaces supply: new buyers, more leverage and more liquidity. In crypto, supply changes are also scheduled. Bitcoin's issuance falls at each halving, which reduces the new coins miners can sell, and the guide to the bitcoin halving explains that mechanism. As prices rise, leveraged long positions grow, and perpetual futures funding turns positive as longs pay to keep positions open.
Bear markets reverse the process. Falling prices trigger liquidations of leveraged longs, which push prices lower still. Businesses that depend on the price feel it in their results: in Q2 2026, Riot's production value per mined bitcoin dropped to $71,667 from $98,800 a year earlier, while its cost to mine before depreciation rose to $49,912. Sentiment turns defensive, and funding on perpetuals falls toward zero or below as short positioning grows.
Neither phase is tied to the wider economy by definition. Investor.gov's rule is about prices, while the NBER, which dates US recessions, describes a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months. A market can fall 20% without a recession, and the reverse is possible too.
Worked Example: Buying Through the Whole Cycle
Timing a cycle exactly is rare, so compare two simple approaches with the same $12,000, using CoinGecko daily prices and ignoring fees.
- Lump sum at the start. Buying $12,000 of bitcoin on October 1, 2025, at $114,088 would have left a position worth about $8,089 on September 15, 2026, a 32.6% loss.
- Monthly purchases. Buying $1,000 on the first day of each month from October 2025 to September 2026 would have accumulated about 0.1551 BTC at an average cost of about $77,362, worth about $11,928 at $76,900, a 0.6% loss.
Spreading purchases did not produce a profit over this period, but it cut the loss from 32.6% to 0.6% because half the buys happened below $77,000, including one at $58,566 on July 1, 2026. The same method would have lagged a lump sum placed at the July low, which is only obvious in hindsight. Emotional discipline matters as much as the method, which is the subject of the guide to crypto trading psychology.
How to Trade Bull and Bear Markets
- Define the phase by your own rule and time frame. Decide in advance whether you measure from the high, the low or a moving average, and act on that rule rather than on headlines.
- Size positions for the volatility. Bitcoin moved more than 50% in nine months, so leverage that looks safe in a calm month can be liquidated in a fast one.
- Use stop-losses in both directions. Longs in bull markets and shorts in bear markets both suffer from sudden reversals.
- Watch funding if you use perpetuals. Persistent positive funding makes holding longs expensive in euphoric phases; negative funding does the same to shorts.
- Hedge instead of selling when appropriate. A short position the size of your holding locks in value during a downturn without selling the coins.
Long and Short Positions on EVEDEX
EVEDEX is a hybrid exchange for perpetual futures, which lets traders go long or short on the same contract in either market phase. Orders are matched off-chain and settled on-chain on Arbitrum L2, with USDT margin under cross margin. It lists 52 perpetual pairs, including BTC-USD, ETH-USD, gold, oil, currency pairs and US stocks, all trading 24/7, with fees of 0.015% maker and 0.045% taker and funding calculated every 8 hours and charged hourly. Leverage reaches 200x on BTC-USD, ETH-USD and SOL-USD for positions up to $50,000 notional, which is far more than most traders should use in a market that moved 53% in nine months. There is no spot market for buying and holding coins, no options, and far fewer pairs than on large exchanges. For the basics of positioning with borrowed exposure, see leverage trading. Perpetual futures carry a high risk of loss.
